of: ■ Houyan Kun (FT Financial Times)
George W. Bush or the courage to face bankruptcy and GM it may be the enormous economic and employment impact, but also do not want to give up their \December 19, the Bush administration announced in December 2008 and January 2009 in batches to the General Motors and Chrysler to provide short-term loans 17.4 billion U.S. dollars, so that the three cars ignited temporary bankruptcy come to an end in 2008 terrified the Americans finally had a Christmas peace of mind.
George W. Bush or the courage to face the bankruptcy of GM and its potential for enormous economic and employment impact, but also do not want to give up their \Motors rotten end it passed Obama. December 19, the Bush administration announced in December 2008 and January 2009 in batches to the General Motors and Chrysler to provide short-term loans 17.4 billion U.S. dollars, so that the three cars ignited temporary bankruptcy come to an end in 2008 terrified the Americans finally had a Christmas peace of mind.
Detroit
Fall of the Big Three Detroit rescue package on what twists and turns? The fundamental reason is that General Motors has been very ill, almost hopeless. The short term, GM is the only lifeline to the U.S. demand for cars in 2009 - later than 2010, to recover quickly and strongly - but even ordinary people know it is not possible. U.S. average over the past 5 years, passenger cars (including cars, SUV, pickup trucks and MPV) needs about 16 million units, demand for 2009 is 1300 million units optimistic forecast
(ie 18% decline ), and pessimistic forecasts can only reach 10 million units (that is down 37%). You know, the existing U.S. production capacity of about 18 million units, while the mid-80s in the last century have 12 million in car sales in Taiwan, the next two years, car manufacturers over the past 25 years how to deal with the increased capacity? 2007 loss of $ 38,700,000,000 General Motors in 2009, over 20% of GM sales fell almost certain circumstances, who can look forward to facing the loss of GM in the entire industry back to life under pressure? Since the October 2008 U.S. auto sales have fallen sharply since the general monthly burned about 20 billion in cash - in other words, 200 billion bailout to survive, but to General Re, 10 months only. Car sales in 2010 is a huge unknown. Who can guarantee that a year later, the Detroit Big Three will not be like today again to Capitol Hill to beg alms?
see the dawn in the case of the Bush administration would not want a full range of assistance, in order to avoid censure by the waste of taxpayer property. Appears to be an orderly way out of bankruptcy, but this process may take six months, possibly as long as two to three years. In this process, parts, sales shops and other auto companies (like Ford), should have time to cope with change, the orderly retreat or attack, to minimize the negative impact. So, changes in the shadow of Detroit, the Chinese auto industry how to meet the challenges and seize the opportunity?
no universal car era
First of all, three of the fall of Detroit's exports to China have a direct hit. First half of 2008, China's exports to the U.S. 4.1 billion worth of auto parts, accounting for China's auto industry exports 20% of the total,moncler clothing, most of which are exported to GM. On the other hand, China's vehicle plant is difficult to benefit in the current financial crisis. After a short-term pain, the Japanese and Korean car firms best able to get three lost market share and become the winner of this crisis.
in the Chinese market, the hardest hit than Shanghai GM - General Motors and Shanghai Automotive's joint venture. If GM filed for bankruptcy liquidation (Chapter 7 bankruptcy law), Shanghai Automotive will face a huge blow; if it is filing for bankruptcy protection (Chapter 11 bankruptcy law), Shanghai Automotive should be able to a soft landing. No matter what kind of situation, should actively formations Shanghai Automotive, General Motors prepare for the funeral,UGGS Kensington, to protect against intense impact.
General Motors into bankruptcy protection, the Shanghai Automotive Shanghai GM will assume the responsibilities and obligations of service, the consumer's confusion and worry to a minimum. Shanghai Automotive has been built up with brand image,UGG Paris, Shanghai GM sales are subject to the negative impact should be limited. Also, after entering bankruptcy protection, GM will try to turn the tide for the last try. China's largest overseas market is the general market, the profit contribution is also the largest market in general. Shanghai GM may well be the only hope of universal salvation, if the full support of the United States, have the opportunity to scale new heights in the face of adversity.
but if they go into liquidation, all property of the U.S. General Motors will soon be frozen, including its trademarks,Moncler Jackets UK, technology and patents - Shanghai GM, this will constitute a heavy blow. Since its inception in 1984,uggs australia, Shanghai Volkswagen, China's market for technology strategy for the basic failure. If the U.S. were frozen the assets of GM, Shanghai GM will lose their source of new products, thus losing its long-term growth driver. More seriously, Shanghai GM could lose use of the Buick, Chevrolet trademark rights. Meanwhile, the Shanghai GM 50% of the shares will be auctioned. As the car prices in China have the problem of excess capacity, Shanghai GM in Shanghai,Uggs Paris, Yantai, Shenyang production base value is not well used. By then, the Shanghai Automotive although you can buy with low price production base of Shanghai GM (1997 for the first time invested more than $ 760,000,000, and later expansion investment many times over one billion U.S. dollars), but not the brand and technology, new products, modern In fact,uggs sheepskin boots, production equipment, scrap metal is no different.
course, the Shanghai Automotive nor Dengxianzhibei. If GM really come to dead end, facing bankruptcy and liquidation, Shanghai Automotive will take the initiative to acquire a common part of the patent, new product platforms, and even the brand and trademark. Has been the acquisition of Ssangyong, the British Rover intellectual property and mergers and acquisitions experience and lessons of Nanjing Auto, Shanghai Automotive may not hastily buy the verge of bankruptcy, a subsidiary of generic or universal, but the selective acquisition of Universal's assets - which will get better results. But the bankruptcy auction is a long and complex process, Shanghai Automotive, China's auto industry is not ready for the era of American General's car yet?
M
long way in the next few months that for decades the Chinese people, elusive car and international brands will be placed before the mercy of Chinese car buyers pick and choose. Ford to Jaguar (Jaguar) and the Land
Rover (Land Rover) sold to the Indians,uggs on sale, now turn up for sale Volvo Volvo. GM's Hummer (Hummer),moncler kids, Potiac (Pontiac), GMC, SAAB (Saab) and Opel (Opel) has become tasteless, GM will reluctantly part with endless rumors; there may be resale include g Chrysler's Dodge (Dodge). Meanwhile,moncler coats, on the east, the FAW are interested in bidding report after another.
Chinese auto people the opportunity to once every hundred years these should be cautious seem to lead to decades are difficult to prevent the failure of repayment. In essence, China's auto enterprises have deep pockets, but the basic system of the car without the ability to brand management, and no mature car culture. And like Mr. Li, Wang and other entrepreneurs, while undergoing a brand-building from scratch, it seems inadequate financial resources. Overseas acquisition legal red tape, the home country greatly interests of workers is protected, the one mistake, is very easy to fall into the quagmire, the future is the integration of the long journey. Shanghai Automotive is experiencing the painful integration process Ssangyong after the Battle of the Rover, adhere to wait for bankruptcy to acquire intellectual property, and then absorb the re-creation of the organic growth path. I believe that now GM intends to sell other brands, Shanghai Automotive are no synergies - but if the Shanghai Automotive to buy the Buick in GM's trademarks before the bankruptcy, it can have even more powerful effect. But taking into account the common core of the Buick brand in the United States, easily transfer is unlikely.
pie in the sky do not eat out
Nanjing Automobile in 2005 to 53 million pounds buy bankrupt MG brand, at first sight fall from the sky like a forest sister, beautiful and cheap - unfortunately there is no ability to operate, leading to dismal sales, capital chain tension, the dilemma facing bankruptcy after two years. Finally, NAC had remarried SAIC, SAIC had tried to evade the Longbridge factory in the UK throw the hot potato and SAIC. England face a decline of aristocracy, even if the good sales of SAIC seems inadequate, and want to vibration fatigue. The MG had long been the days are numbered from the historical stage, China's auto industry, so why squander hundreds of millions of whom? !
I believe that people should be south of the China Automotive Steam-MG farce as a warning, in Detroit to prevent the collapse of making the same mistakes. Ambitious Chinese auto people should understand that there is M & A \Crumbling in the acquired side, the low-cost acquisitions,ugg stivali, and is not necessarily a victory. Overseas M & A integration,Cheap Ugg Boots on sale, depends on overcoming the many legal and cultural barriers, but also depends on the management and employees of the acquired party's full cooperation. \The experience of dying when the other person, the extended \China's auto industry should strive to be overseas M & A value for money spent every penny, and then create value.
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